Subdued mortgage market in Scotland broadly parallel to UK

A fall was expected in this quarter due to the effect of the stamp duty holiday over-inflating the market at the end of 2009.

The 5,000 loans to first-time buyers (worth £444 million) were up 4% by volume and 5% by value from the second quarter. Compared to the same period last year, this was a fall of 7% by volume and 6% by value. First-time buyers accounted for 37% of the market in Scotland – 1% more than the UK as a whole.

There was a larger increase in lending to home movers. They were advanced 8,600 loans (worth £1.1 billion) from July to September, an increase of 8% by volume and 10% by value from the previous three months and are the only group to also see an increase from the same period the previous year – of 2% by volume and 8% by value.

As was the case across the whole of the UK, first-time buyers and home movers had begun to see a slight easing in lending criteria as 2010 continued. This appears to now be reversing with the average loan to value ratios decreasing in the third quarter to 77% from 79% for Scottish first-time buyers and to 70% from 71% for home movers in Scotland. The average ratios for Scottish home movers of 70% from July to September compared to 67% for the UK as a whole.

Reflecting the trend across the UK, refinancing activity remained extremely muted in Scotland from July to September. There were 8,000 loans for remortgage (worth £800 million) advanced in the third quarter, down 1,000 from the previous quarter (with no change in value) and down 2,000 from a year earlier (with the value down £200 million).

CML Scotland policy consultant Kennedy Foster said:

"Mortgage lending levels in Scotland and the UK as a whole are likely to remain subdued for the remainder of this year and into 2011. We are seeing little consumer demand which, coupled with issues around funding capacity, means that the mortgage market will remain constrained for some time."

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