Rents dip in run-up to Christmas

This is the first month on month fall since January this year. Annual rental inflation also slowed to 3.5%, a decline from 4.1% in October. Despite the seasonal decline, the average property rent is £25 per month higher than in November 2010.

On a monthly basis, rents fell in six regions, with the biggest declines in the East Midlands, where they fell 2.2%, and the
South East, where they fell by 2.1%. The largest rises were Yorkshire & the Humber and Wales, where rents increased by
1.2% in both regions. However, in the last 12 months rents have risen in all regions. The fastest rising rents on an annual basis were in London and the South East, where rents rose by 4.2%. The smallest rises were in the North East and the
South West. London’s rents rose compared to October, increasing by 0.3% to £1,033 pcm, despite the annual rate of increase slowing. Nevertheless, for tenants, this represents a rise of £41 per month compared to November 2010.

David Newnes, director of LSL Property Services, owners of Your Move and Reeds Rains, said:

“Following their relentless march upward throughout the year, rent rises have taken a pause for breath. Landlords are
looking to avoid having properties vacant over the Christmas period, and can be less aggressive with pricing as tenant activity slows in the run up to the New Year. But across the country, the limited supply of rental accommodation means there will still be strong upward pressure on rents in the early part of 2012.

“The government missed a golden opportunity in the Autumn Statement to give the private rented sector a fillip, and encourage the investment needed for the long-term supply of rental homes to match demand. Extending the stamp duty holiday to buy-to-let investments would have removed a financial obstacle in the path of new investors, easing the strain on the current limited stock of properties. However, with the failure to even extend the holiday for first-time buyers, despite the new mortgage indemnity scheme, demand for rental accommodation from frustrated buyers will continue to increase as we progress through 2012, and rents resume their upwards trajectory.”

The average yield remained steady at 5.3%. Total annual returns climbed in November as the annual decline in property prices slowed, and rental incomes increased. The average total annual return per property in November was 2.2%, compared to 1.4% in October. In cash terms, this was an average of £3,726 – equivalent to £7,700 in rent with a capital loss of £3,974. If property prices maintain the same trend as the last three months, an investor could expect to make a total annual loss of 0.7% over the next 12 months – equivalent to £1,144 per property.

David Newnes continues: “Total annual returns might be reined in by falling house prices in the past three months, but it is currently yields rather than capital gains that are attracting investors to the sector. It is rental income that pays a landlord’s mortgage, and while capital gains are important over the long run, the strength of demand and rents underpin sensible investment decisions. With property prices weakening, and rental income strengthening, long-term investors are exploiting cheap interest rates to pick-up bargain properties that will provide a strong yield.”

Tenant finances improved in November, with 9.3% of all rent late or unpaid at the end of the month, compared to 10.1% by the end of October. In November, unpaid rent totalled £263m, an 8% fall from the £287m unpaid in the previous month.

Newnes concludes: “Tenant arrears have defied the gloomier backdrop of a deteriorating labour market and the rising cost of living. Despite the increasing cost of renting, many tenants have got their finances in order in the run-up to Christmas, in the expectation of an expensive festive period. We’re still also seeing the impact of a changed tenant mix, which is helping keep arrears below historic levels. A large proportion of current renters would be credit-worthy buyers were they able to provide a big enough deposit to satisfy tight mortgage lending criteria. These tenants are typically financially sound, and less likely to experience payment issues.

“Despite this, we anticipate that tenant arrears cases will edge up in the coming year. With the ongoing challenges the UK economy faces, and the threat of the eurozone crisis, even more tenants will see their pay and jobs affected over the medium term.”

Duncan Kreeger, chairman of West One Loans, said:

“Life for landlords is not as sweet as it looks.  For instance, the market for buy-to-let loans only looks in rude health when compared to the ultra-turgid residential mortgage market.  In fact, lending to property investors is very low by historic standards.  There were 34,500 buy-to-let loans in Q3 2011.  That’s chicken feed set against the 60,000 loans written in Q3 of 2006.  Although it’s not as hard for buy to let investors to secure mortgages as it is for first time buyers, it’s still very difficult.  And while LTVs might be rising on buy-to-let finance, criteria are still very strict and look set to become harsher as the eurozone crisis pushes up lenders costs and forces them to hoard capital.  With banks unable to meet high demand for buy-to-let finance, property investors and buy-to-let landlords are turning to bridging lenders.  Net bridging lending has risen 53% since start of 2010 as a result and 82% of bridging loans by volume are now made to residential property investors.”

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0 thoughts on “Rents dip in run-up to Christmas

  1. Mark Alexander

    For the second year in a row I have no rental voids in December. I also predict that rent will increase by around £30 a month during 2012. With low interest rates and high rental demend I’vce never had it so good :)